Recent Performance: Gold experienced a significant rally from around 2370 last Friday, hitting targets near 2390, 2400, and 2410, delivering a substantial profit for traders. The move extended to just above 2410 before reversing to around 2400. Another sharp move brought prices back up to the low 2420s.
Current Resistance: The 2420 to 2430 level is a strong resistance area and could be the most critical level of the week. Despite the strong bullish trend, there's a possibility of a reversal at the start of this week, potentially forming a double top pattern, which is a bearish signal.
Short Trade Opportunity: If the market does not open significantly above 2420, consider shorting within the 2420 to 2430 range. Place stops slightly above 2430.
Short Targets:
- First Target: Around 2400, where initial support is expected.
- Further downside: If prices break below 2400, look for a buying opportunity around 2390 with stops below 2380.
Long Trade Considerations:
- Buy Levels: Around 2390 with stops below 2380.
- Targets for Longs: 2410, 2420, and 2430.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Break Above 2430: Retest of the all-time high around 2430. A sustained break above this level is a buy signal for the week.
Silver (XAGUSD) Analysis and Trade Strategy
Recent Performance: Silver broke above the April high around 2980 last Friday, signaling a buy and reaching targets near 3000 and 3050. The price continued to move up, nearly hitting 3200, and topped just below 3160.
Resistance and Outlook: While there is minor resistance at Friday’s high, the longer-term outlook for silver remains positive, especially after breaking above the highs from 2020 and 2021 around 2980/3000.
Support Levels:
- 2950/2940: Limited downside is expected here with stops below 2920.
Long Trade Opportunity: If there is some weakness or profit-taking, consider buying around the 2950/2940 support level and hold the position for a few days or even weeks due to the positive long-term outlook. Targets remain high, with $35.00 being a reasonable expectation in the coming days.
WTI Crude Oil (July Future) Analysis and Trade Strategy
Recent Performance: WTI Crude closed above the two-week range high around 8000 last Friday, also surpassing a descending trend line on the four-hour charts and moving averages.
Breakout Potential :A close above 8000 suggests a bullish breakout. If prices hold above this level, there's confidence in a further rally.
Buy Levels and Targets:
- Initial Buy: If prices dip back to the 8000/7980 range, this is a buying opportunity with stops below 7950.
- Targets: A break above 8100 signals further buying with targets around 8150/60, potentially extending to 8210/8230.
Spot Contract Consideration: The spot WTI Crude contract trades about 35 ticks below the June futures. Therefore, a break above 7970 is today's buy signal.
Conclusion
Each of these commodities presents unique trading opportunities based on recent price actions and key technical levels. Traders should monitor these levels closely:
- Gold (XAUUSD): Key resistance at 2420/2430 with a potential double top formation. Consider shorts if it doesn't open significantly above 2420.
- Silver (XAGUSD): Support around 2950/2940 with a strong long-term bullish outlook. Buy on dips.
- WTI Crude Oil (July Future): A breakout above 8000, targeting higher levels if it holds. Buy on dips to 8000/7980 with a break above 8100 as a strong buy signal.
By staying vigilant and adhering to these strategies, traders can capitalize on the anticipated market movements and manage risks effectively.
